Focus Gambling Scene Explained
Posted By admin On 31/03/22- Focus Gambling Scene Explained Games
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Profitable bettors come from all walks of life. Yet, if you are in the actuarial profession, you are well ahead of the curve. Here’s what Dominic Cortis, an associate actuary and current researcher in the betting markets, has to say about how actuaries can make a profit as a bettor.
What area were you working in before you started your research in sports analytics, and how did you decide to focus on the betting markets?
I have mainly worked in higher education, with a short stint in the actuarial profession. While working with the Insurance and Pensions Supervisions Unit with the Maltese financial regulator (MFSA), I was involved in collating industry stats, checking the adequacy of solvency reserves and preparing for the new insurance regulation.
While watching a Euro 2012 match, Dr. Frank Neumann, a senior colleague was asking me questions about the betting markets. I couldn't answer most of them, but in a eureka moment I decided to test an idea revolving around applying financial techniques to the betting markets.
At that point I knew that my PhD would take a more sports betting focus rather than a traditional finance one. The current focus of my research is developing and testing a solvency framework for bookmakers.
What are the fundamental similarities in what you were doing then and what you do now?
In both financial and betting modelling; you decide a set of assumptions on which you build your model. These make or break the model, so a lot of care needs to be made with respect to choosing, testing and updating these.
The categories of experts working in both industries are also very similar. You find individuals who focus on the intricacies of a model to develop sophisticated models that provide an edge, others that focus on price movements, and more that focus on the quality of data.
Both fields are focused on measuring risk and finding value, but are there any aspects fundamentally different?
A bet is after all a binary-option and hence can be classified as a derivative. Furthermore, I consider insurance and betting as basically the same, except for one key feature – 'insurable interest'.
When purchasing insurance, one must have 'insurable interest', that is have something to lose, if an outcome occurs. The concept is the opposite for a bet; a player of a particular team cannot purchase a bet on his team losing a match. A bet is made to win an amount while an insurance is made to place you in the same position should something occur.
'When purchasing insurance, one must have 'insurable interest'. The concept is the opposite for a bet. A bet is made to win an amount, while an insurance is made to place you in the same position should something occur'
That is, if I purchase a contract that pays me a sum on Queen's Elizabeth's death, I am betting. If Prince Philip does it, then he is purchasing insurance.
This leads to less scope for asymmetric information in sports and betting. When purchasing life insurance, I may not tell the insurer that I have a health condition, if not asked.
The insurer, on the other hand, may have sophisticated models that give them a better estimate of what the likelihood and severity of certain outcomes are. This leads to one party having better and/or more information. The extent of this difference is much lower in betting markets at the time of writing.
The three key items to predict in finance are the probability, size (severity) and timing. Take insuring against a catastrophe, for example. The extent of the damage may range from a few hundred to billions of dollars.
One would also be interested in the timing of such an event so as to have investments that can be liquidated accordingly. There is also significant uncertainty over claims development over several years following an event.
Yet, in betting, we are less interested in the severity and timing, since most bets are short term.
Do you think an actuary is more likely to become a profitable sports bettor and why?
Actuaries are experts in risk and are trained to ask questions and build models. I think this gives an edge over the traditional bettor or the modeler who strictly focuses on the maths.
Furthermore, actuaries are often involved in interpreting results from a range of sources and presenting them to a non-expert audience. This ability, essential in a consulting actuary, is also very useful when trying to work out what biases in the betting population can be usefully exploited in betting.
What advice would you give to an actuary aspiring to apply their knowledge in sports betting to make money?
Focus Gambling Scene Explained Games
It is truly enjoyable to apply actuarial knowledge in sports betting. If you read through my strategy articles, you might as well recognise the influence of an actuarial mind. As with any betting suggestion, treat it as a fun exercise!
The interviewee would like to thank Nick Foster for his helpful insight. Nick Foster is a qualified actuary and lecturer in actuarial sciences at the University of Leicester, where he is Programme Director for the BSc Mathematics and Actuarial Science. He writes at www.weknow0.co.uk, on a range of pensions and economics-related topics.
How To Focus For Landscapes
A beginner photographer asked me recently, “How or where do I focus for landscapes and what exactly does it mean when someone says ‘focus one third into the scene’?
To be honest it’s something I’d wrongly presumed everyone understood how to do.
When photographers shoot typical landscapes
Generally landscape photographers want a wide angle image with as much focus as possible from front to back. This is when they often set a large aperture number, for example anywhere between f/11 and f/22, then focus one third into the scene before taking the shot. Ok, now what does that mean exactly!
For starters you need to set your camera to a single focal point and know how to switch between them. If you don’t understand how to do this, I suggest reading your camera manual or these tips on focal points.
To focus for landscapes one third into the scene, I look through my cameras rear vision and choose one of the bottom focal points. Similar to the example image below.
Note: For the focal points to light up you need to press your shutter button half way down. Then you will be able to switch between points, choosing one that is roughly 1/3rd of the way up from the bottom of an image.
The depth of field extends roughly from 1/3 in front to 2/3 behind the focus point when shooting landscapes with this technique. Therefore in this example shown above, everything from the sand in the foreground to the end of the wharf and horizon is in focus.
What would happen if I focused on the horizon?
If I were to focus on the horizon, the incoming wave in the foreground and the shine of the sand would have appeared much softer and therefore not as sharp. Many photographers use this technique to their advantage when photographing country sceneries for example and they want foreground grass to appear blurred like the image shown below.
Remember, where you focus affects what areas of the landscape are seen in sharp focus, and what areas are blurred. For wide angle landscapes use the rule of focusing 1/3rd into the scene coupled with a high aperture f-number for sharp shots.
What does sharp focus really mean?
Focus Gambling Scene Explained Quotes
I recently had a beginner photographer say to me, ‘when I look at my images in full size, the trees on the mountains are never sharp, especially when I crop to the trees’.
What this photographer meant was, the image isn’t properly focused because there is no details seen in the trees on the horizon. This is actually normal for DSLR cameras. They work very much like our eyes. Details are much more apparent on nearer objects than those much further away in distance.
Focus Gambling Scene Explained Movie
Take the first photo on this page for example. With my own eyes I could see the ripples in the sand, but not the details of the trees on the far mountains. Therefore don’t expect your DSLR camera to show details either when cropping the image to the trees. It doesn’t mean the image isn’t sharply focused from front to back, it simply means just like your eyes, that is exactly how the camera saw this particular landscape.
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There are cameras on the market that can give great detail from front to back, such as Hasselblad and Phase One. They are very expensive and usually out of the range of the average photographer.
Sign-up for our online photography course and learn how to master your digital camera in easy to understand “at your own pace” lessons.
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